Brexit: EU and UK see eye-to-eye on video conference but no-one can see way out of logjam (just yet)

On 15 June 2020, almost four years after the UK voted to leave the EU, there was a video conference between the Presidents of the European Council, the European Commission, the European Parliament and the Prime Minister of the UK.

Every one of those office holders has changed in the intervening four years since the referendum. Gone are Donald Tusk, Jean-Claude Juncker, Martin Schulz and David Cameron.

However, very little has changed in the intervening four years to clarify how the EU and the UK will relate to each other post-Brexit. Even now, when the UK has actually left the EU, there is little certainty about the future long-term arrangements.

Four years ago, relatively few would have predicted that Charles Michel would now be the President of the European Council, or Ursula von der Leyen would be the President of the European Commission or David Sassoli would be the President of the European Parliament. Many would have predicted Boris Johnson becoming UK Prime Minister but even that became uncertain when he suddenly withdrew his candidature on 30 June 2016 after Michael Gove entered the race to be UK PM.

Again, few would have predicted that four years after the referendum, there would still be so much uncertainty and doubt as to how the EU and the UK would co-exist once the UK left the world's largest trading bloc. Brexit-supporting former UK Trade Minister Liam Fox typified the Brexit view when he said, in the run-up to the referendum, that an agreement between the EU and the UK should be "one of the easiest in human history". The preliminary agreement took three years to drag across the line after several extensions. And, now, the final relationship agreement negotiations are moving at a pace that snails would find irritatingly slow

In an effort to clear the logjam, there was a video conference between the EU leaders and the UK Prime Minister. Michel Barnier, probably the only constant in the negotiations over the years, was in attendance at the call. (The EU needs to keep the 69-year old Barnier centre-stage because his continuous involvement, since his appointment as Chief Negotiator on 27 July 2016, is a tremendous advantage to the EU's negotiating strategy because he has "seen and heard nearly everything" at this stage.)    

The video conference on 15 June 2020 was to take "stock of progress with the aim of agreeing actions to move forward in negotiations on the future relationship".

During the video conference, the EU and the UK noted the UK’s decision not to request any extension to the transition period which is due to end on 31 December 2020. The EU will have regretted that there is no extension – not because an extension would help change the UK's mind (it has already left) – but rather because the EU believes that a better deal would be done if there was more time. (Given that the parties have had to correct 10 errors so far in the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated intensively over three years, the EU has a point about the need to spend time on getting agreements right.)

In the video conference, the Parties welcomed "the constructive discussions on the future relationship that had taken place", the four rounds of negotiation and the fact that texts of an agreement had been "exchanged despite the challenges presented by the COVID-19 pandemic."

And then came the "nevertheless" in the leaders' joint statement.

"The Parties agreed nevertheless that new momentum was required. They supported the plans agreed by (the EU and UK) Chief Negotiators to intensify the talks in July and to create the most conducive conditions for concluding and ratifying a deal before the end of 2020. This should include, if possible, finding an early understanding on the principles underlying any agreement."

The notion that both sides would now go in search over the next few weeks of "an early understanding on the principles underlying any agreement" is somewhat puzzling and depressing. Those principles were meant to be the principles set down in the carefully crafted and chiselled Revised Political Declaration on the Future UK-EU Relationship which had been thrashed out over three years and agreed to by both sides (including Boris Johnson as UK PM) last year. If the parties are still trying to find the principles which would underlie an agreement then we are a long way from the fine print that makes such an agreement work.

Some of the optimism in some Brexit-supporting media since the video conference that there could a deal by July would be wonderful but it is probably just wishful thinking. The video conference might, as the current UK Prime Minister say, add "oomph" to the process but the way forward is not much clearer. Oomph might make the journey go quicker but it is still a long journey. Intensive talks should hopefully increase the chances of clarity but it's time to catch up on the sleep right now because there will be late nights and missed deadlines before there is any real sign of clarity and agreement on this matter. Thus there will be at least one aspect of the pre-COVID-19 world which will return: the uncertainty and last minute talks over Brexit will be played out all over again. Somethings never change.

For more information on this topic please contact Dr Vincent Power, Partner or any member of A&L Goodbody's EU, Competition & Procurement team.

Date published: 17 June 2020